TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,720 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7200…9299backed Yes44c763.64$337 inWon+$426.9536954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Yes49c409.85$200 inWon+$209.856031.7%19 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No55c313.99$174 inLost-$174.2639265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No56c300$168 inLost-$1681,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes44c300$132 inWon+$168.46342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No44c251.21$111 inLost-$110.531,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c0…92d8backed Yes47c213.19$100 inWon+$113.192236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…798abacked No60c212$127 inLost-$127.25470.4%38 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Yes34c161.76$55 inWon+$106.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No52c151.19$79 inLost-$79.095,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No56c141.41$79 inLost-$79.1915362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Yes35c129.3$45 inWon+$84.621,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No65c110$72 inLost-$71.527074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No57c104.67$60 inLost-$6097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No65c100$65 inLost-$6590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7cb…5e13backed No66c100$66 inLost-$661040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes43c94.87$40 inWon+$54.4938736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b0…6592backed Yes47c75$35 inWon+$39.753040%12 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No53c70$37 inLost-$37.121672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No58c64.17$37 inLost-$37.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No66c49.86$33 inLost-$32.9195260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No67c42.94$29 inLost-$28.5832866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0278…5f1fbacked Yes45c41.91$19 inWon+$23.057240.3%29 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No61c29.94$18 inLost-$18.2690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No57c29.46$17 inLost-$16.7992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed No57c27.85$16 inLost-$15.8721357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked No65c22$14 inLost-$14.316551.5%85 W · 80 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No57c20$11 inLost-$11.496956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No67c15$10 inLost-$10.0588057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed No79c12.6$10 inLost-$107841%32 W · 46 L-9.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.