TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-18.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$775,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,141 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Thunder53c130,564$68,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,814.1111457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Thunder50c129,551$64,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,971.7517250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets47c129,505$60,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,867.4587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder50c109,242$54,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,753.791,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Nets49c99,812$48,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,902.0972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Nets51c70,000$35,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,699.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Nets48c60,012$28,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,613.69655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Thunder52c45,198$23,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,694.8836359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Nets50c40,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0006546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Nets51c35,104$17,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,902.971,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nets48c30,316$14,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,551.11,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets48c21,491$10,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,247.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Thunder52c20,900$10,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,03259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Nets48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6003447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder55c14,050$7,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,322.738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Thunder53c9,434$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.9629347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeac…94ebbacked Thunder51c9,083$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder52c9,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.931,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…eed7backed Nets51c8,732$4,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,453.323943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder53c7,110$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.982,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder55c6,783$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.371,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c6,020$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,004.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Nets51c5,835$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976.048148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Nets51c5,822$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.2231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Thunder52c5,660$2,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,716.814245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Nets51c5,387$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.232150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Thunder50c5,263$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.4617050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder51c5,183$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.344,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x239e…1286backed Nets46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nets48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Thunder51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.578154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder52c3,750$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.4869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Nets47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Nets51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadef…175bbacked Thunder54c2,511$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nets50c2,502$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.781,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d00…6fe7backed Thunder54c2,416$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x727f…3220backed Thunder54c2,414$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nets4c2,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9655316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8a…bab4backed Nets46c2,159$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c8…2ea3backed Nets46c2,121$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Thunder49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.828838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x675e…3c75backed Thunder54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Nets51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Nets51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d2…021ebacked Thunder54c1,933$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1022…2a5ebacked Nets46c1,844$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…e8d5backed Nets46c1,826$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Nets50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed9…bd58backed Thunder54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6902100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee6f…b617backed Thunder54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6902100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+103.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Thunder51c1,428$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.669952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Thunder55c1,400$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.0619147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x515f…7e7fbacked Nets45c1,387$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.054639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets49c1,361$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.363,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a95…1687backed Nets46c1,341$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets49c1,262$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.649,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Thunder55c1,250$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.526149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder53c1,238$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.82,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Thunder51c1,039$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.1922154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets46c1,032$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.678,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Thunder52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Thunder53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder50c978.35$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.83,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Nets50c967.06$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.5342352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Thunder53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.46266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nets49c938$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.621,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Thunder53c902.04$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.9616338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Thunder50c885$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.554443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97d3…8acebacked Nets51c884.31$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nets7c823.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder51c671.98$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.271,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecd2…38d1backed Nets51c617.1$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.722864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Thunder49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2427746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Nets51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Nets48c535.37$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.958450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Thunder54c483.61$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4680653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Thunder51c447$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0314144.7%63 W · 78 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder52c443.52$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5222953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Thunder51c442$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5823850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Thunder53c425.72$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0917153.2%91 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Nets45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Thunder52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.622828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Thunder53c376.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17711242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Nets49c320.6$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3613554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder51c320$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Nets50c319.59$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.997948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Nets49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14780737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…4ba0backed Nets50c275.65$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Nets51c275.43$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4759250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Thunder53c270$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.945646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd705…c09abacked Nets50c258.11$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Nets48c256.52$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1334342.9%147 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9737…09c1backed Thunder51c253$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.974240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Thunder51c253$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9713352.6%70 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Thunder50c245.02$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.519260.9%56 W · 36 L+10.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.