TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,855 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No72c1,610$1,158 inWon+$451.9465762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3337…1cd4backed Yes29c1,206$350 inLost-$350714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No72c939$680 inWon+$259.361,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe545…a2c4backed Yes29c408.09$120 inLost-$120728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c2…61ddbacked Yes31c403.13$125 inLost-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…1b98backed Yes23c292.68$68 inLost-$681030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…fe80backed Yes24c211.33$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No70c157.15$110 inWon+$47.1597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…bb32backed Yes31c145.16$45 inLost-$451225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38b8…9bdfbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost-$28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No72c95.21$68 inWon+$27.1192058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No76c82.78$63 inWon+$19.694,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Yes32c80$25 inLost-$25.474639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No73c59.38$44 inWon+$15.8583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes30c50.09$15 inLost-$157640.8%31 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No79c38$30 inWon+$8.0296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No74c26.04$19 inWon+$6.7989853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No75c20$15 inWon+$59869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.