TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,700 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No68c2,200$1,492 inWon+$7081,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc92…eea6backed Yes32c2,026$644 inLost-$644425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No70c906.82$630 inWon+$276.4365762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No46c868.08$396 inWon+$472.441,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fb…9a62backed Yes31c655.6$200 inLost-$2001625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Yes37c500$185 inLost-$1855152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d5…8508backed Yes31c322$100 inLost-$99.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No68c294.17$201 inWon+$92.7292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No69c204.32$141 inWon+$63.7183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c158.71$100 inWon+$58.7297049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes33c152$49 inLost-$49.4120040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes33c148.14$48 inLost-$48.4336954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes23c100$23 inLost-$233,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No64c90$57 inWon+$32.790357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No67c85$57 inWon+$28.0527074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Yes31c80$25 inLost-$24.84639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes22c78.55$17 inLost-$17.282356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No70c77.91$54 inWon+$23.5189853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes40c62.5$25 inLost-$259031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No50c50$25 inWon+$252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes49c49.02$24 inLost-$24.0211565.2%75 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked No68c31.18$21 inWon+$9.8712949.6%64 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No68c29$20 inWon+$9.2839265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No71c28.16$20 inWon+$8.179869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No66c24$16 inWon+$8.0832866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked No67c21.65$15 inWon+$7.0446255.6%257 W · 205 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed No63c20$13 inWon+$7.445544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No72c19.99$14 inWon+$5.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.