TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets44c6,541$2,874 inLost-$2,874.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder56c6,319$3,539 inWon+$2,780.421,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets44c1,029$453 inLost-$452.784,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder63c925.84$583 inWon+$342.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets44c899.98$392 inLost-$391.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder56c875.75$487 inWon+$388.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets44c757.36$333 inLost-$333.244,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Thunder57c526.32$300 inWon+$226.3211358.4%66 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Thunder54c450.98$244 inWon+$207.454438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nets45c200$90 inLost-$901,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nets42c172.41$72 inLost-$72.412,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed8…3affbacked Thunder58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.4114170.9%100 W · 41 L+11.4wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Thunder57c100$57 inWon+$4359650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Thunder54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.593557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Nets31c62.78$19 inLost-$19.211,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Nets47c49$23 inLost-$23.0338252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf35e…f846backed Nets45c44.44$20 inLost-$207356.2%41 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder57c39.6$23 inWon+$17.033,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd815…1cdebacked Thunder57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.098456%47 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder76c31.97$24 inWon+$7.823,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Nets47c30$14 inLost-$14.16053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Thunder55c29.4$16 inWon+$13.2314448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Thunder56c18$10 inWon+$7.831,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.