TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No73c1,225$889 inWon+$336.151,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49fb…9a62backed Yes28c1,084$300 inLost-$3001625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No55c528.73$293 inWon+$235.6165762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes27c500$134 inLost-$134.0936954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No75c277.81$208 inWon+$69.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Yes43c234.03$100 inLost-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes23c217.34$50 inLost-$5031540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes48c193$93 inLost-$92.646342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No73c185.01$136 inWon+$49.1392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes28c176.44$49 inLost-$4920040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c138.88$100 inWon+$38.8997049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…bb32backed Yes28c108.18$30 inLost-$301225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No74c93.19$69 inWon+$24.2383158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost-$205836.2%21 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No74c66$49 inWon+$17.190357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No77c60$46 inWon+$13.81,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x513b…ac4cbacked Yes20c54.85$11 inLost-$10.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No77c53.98$42 inWon+$12.411,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked No75c48.67$36 inWon+$12.2312949.6%64 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No75c43.45$32 inWon+$11.0589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost-$209031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x390e…076cbacked Yes43c42.33$18 inLost-$18.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes24c41.85$10 inLost-$107640.8%31 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2691…f3b8backed Yes30c40.82$12 inLost-$12.184131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No77c40$31 inWon+$9.296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No78c40$31 inWon+$8.830256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No68c29.19$20 inWon+$9.349869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No74c21$16 inWon+$5.4632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.