NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 212.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2c15eb84d8c86d61aa9821b8b2eb14431c75428decf8d13ae50874262f3307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,827 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 42c | 22,153$9,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,304.21 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 59c | 19,866$11,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200.92 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 15,963$6,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,809.06 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 58c | 10,453$6,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,392.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 41c | 8,450$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.5 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 57c | 8,360$4,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.6 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Over | 55c | 3,058$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.1 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 2,986$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Under | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 13c | 1,627$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.88 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed Under | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 881.16$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 679$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 58c | 552.92$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.62 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e12…b916backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 303.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 12c | 249.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.73 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 5c | 215$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.25 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 196.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 45c | 109.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…87c9backed Over | 58c | 104.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…86dfbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 74c | 76.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…bfe3backed Over | 62c | 65.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Over | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 54.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 46c | 48.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 60c | 47.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…850fbacked Over | 50c | 45.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 40.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…bf73backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 47c | 29.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 54c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…d21abacked Under | 45c | 26.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 45c | 25.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Under | 47c | 23.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…c47bbacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 85 | 71.8%61 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 212.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Noah Clowney: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-23.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-25.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-31.5)Nets won
- Spread: Thunder (-35.5)Nets won
- Spread: Thunder (-37.5)Nets won
- Thunder vs. NetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 192.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 200.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 203.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 214.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.