TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 212.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,827 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under42c22,153$9,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,304.2124744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over59c19,866$11,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,200.9234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under43c15,963$6,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,809.064,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over58c10,453$6,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,392.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Under41c8,450$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.511940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over57c8,360$4,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,594.666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92015849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6802,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Over55c3,058$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.111335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over58c2,986$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.124,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Under1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over13c1,627$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.882,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ef…3973backed Under1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13802.5%2 W · 78 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-88.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%0 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Under1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under51c881.16$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.973,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Over57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1962652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over58c679$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over58c552.92$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.623,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e12…b916backed Over57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.88560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c303.13$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over12c249.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7320837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over5c215$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.251,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over58c196.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Under12c155$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6580440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Under12c155$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.654126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8623657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under45c109.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4162541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe169…87c9backed Over58c104.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.811643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x837d…86dfbacked Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Under19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.445544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under74c76.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.361,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…bfe3backed Over62c65.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed Over53c60.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.383842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Under32c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.655416.7%9 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under47c54.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.451,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Over60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2010957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Under46c48.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5120847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under60c47.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b5…850fbacked Over50c45.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under67c40.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Under28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.414443.1%62 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x142d…bf73backed Over58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.486549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over59c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7168940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under40c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under47c29.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6991746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over54c28.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1552552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…d21abacked Under45c26.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under45c25.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5687744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Under47c23.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2830…c47bbacked Over53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under74c20.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8965542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.822044.5%98 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd650…8d74backed Over60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.28571.8%61 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.