NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 216.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6980ae67dd3da9e05923d8e1c759c6996fb447dc37f7b2d6b81eed2b3f200feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,936 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 50c | 88,651$44,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,325.67 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 45,574$22,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,786.94 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Under | 50c | 19,130$9,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,564.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 8,778$4,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,334.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 8,175$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,078.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,859$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4859…4d38backed Over | 43c | 2,755$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 50c | 2,491$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.66 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…88e2backed Over | 43c | 2,366$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 2,330$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 2,315$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.29 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Over | 47c | 2,138$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…4022backed Under | 57c | 2,066$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Under | 50c | 2,038$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…67f0backed Over | 43c | 1,966$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…6e6ebacked Under | 57c | 1,823$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…069bbacked Over | 43c | 1,756$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff57…e2ecbacked Under | 57c | 1,736$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…de0dbacked Under | 57c | 1,688$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…facebacked Over | 43c | 1,632$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Under | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.43 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Under | 57c | 1,355$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Under | 50c | 1,327$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.3 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8036…b088backed Under | 57c | 1,255$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 629.89$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 577.37$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…28f5backed Under | 57c | 552$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 483.55$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.89 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Under | 58c | 258.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 47c | 136.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 52c | 126$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 57c | 123.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 119.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 55c | 117.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 110.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 104.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Over | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Over | 47c | 82.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 78.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Over | 44c | 75.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 41c | 70.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3324…3b4cbacked Over | 32c | 65.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 45c | 64.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…5bb8backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Over | 34c | 53.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 51.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…9e33backed Under | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 47.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde2…3fcfbacked Under | 50c | 33.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 42c | 32.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x687b…9e4ebacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 65c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 53c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 50c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 216.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Noah Clowney: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-23.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-25.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-31.5)Nets won
- Spread: Thunder (-35.5)Nets won
- Spread: Thunder (-37.5)Nets won
- Thunder vs. NetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 192.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 200.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 203.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 208.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 214.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.