TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$760,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $760,368 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 603 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Jazz60c168,795$101,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,205.4287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Raptors40c99,202$39,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,532.6460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa729…9326backed Jazz50c91,500$45,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,7504949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Jazz51c43,113$21,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,987.3932653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Raptors40c40,639$16,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,383.211,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…6b7ebacked Raptors50c27,705$13,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,852.51275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Jazz56c24,216$13,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,464.929053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Jazz56c23,733$13,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,368.6972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors46c20,942$9,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,283.094,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb944…2defbacked Raptors50c17,379$8,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,689.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd83e…2be4backed Raptors50c15,422$7,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7111361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d53…91a2backed Raptors50c14,830$7,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4151154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064c…ef68backed Raptors50c14,225$7,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,112.351361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972e…40c9backed Raptors50c13,664$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8321060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors46c12,817$5,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,977.534,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7e…d973backed Raptors50c12,135$6,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,067.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda6…ca21backed Jazz50c11,355$5,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,677.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2238…b57abacked Jazz50c9,888$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Jazz50c9,670$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,834.8974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5205…ca3ebacked Jazz50c9,358$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b73…0414backed Raptors50c9,243$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,621.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9562…24e0backed Raptors50c9,069$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,534.5875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+50.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c15…c697backed Raptors50c9,062$4,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5316100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9194…96fbbacked Raptors50c9,042$4,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x305b…d5f7backed Jazz50c9,021$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,510.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8667…b622backed Raptors50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabe…b610backed Raptors50c8,992$4,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,496475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5f…e8debacked Jazz50c8,826$4,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,413560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5688…6680backed Raptors50c8,704$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+57.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24de…1c2abacked Raptors50c8,674$4,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+59.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0416…983abacked Raptors50c8,587$4,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,293.5875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+63.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb529…9342backed Jazz0c8,204$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Raptors49c8,163$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.2749246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3e…8ccebacked Jazz50c8,142$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d2…5f41backed Raptors50c8,136$4,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,068771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+39.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x003e…1cc4backed Jazz50c8,117$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,058.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe473…1057backed Jazz50c8,079$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f2…af53backed Raptors50c8,004$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+43.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Raptors49c7,959$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.1834854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8acc…caddbacked Raptors50c7,889$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,944.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+63.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a1d…a465backed Raptors50c7,867$3,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca7…8dd3backed Jazz50c7,814$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf491…04f4backed Jazz50c7,770$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa5…4aa7backed Jazz50c7,707$3,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,853.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52df…4495backed Jazz50c7,577$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…6ac1backed Raptors50c7,573$3,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc333…526abacked Raptors50c7,559$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d12…7274backed Jazz50c7,448$3,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,724366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f93…2166backed Jazz50c7,365$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,682.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Raptors50c7,234$3,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6171,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…9505backed Jazz50c7,182$3,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,591450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8b…4371backed Jazz50c7,178$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x529f…0a39backed Jazz50c7,141$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,570.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…9322backed Raptors50c6,935$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ca…3870backed Raptors50c6,708$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Raptors50c6,689$3,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.4912945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa412…bf8ebacked Jazz50c6,275$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x773d…d709backed Jazz50c6,261$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x974a…7878backed Jazz50c6,252$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Raptors40c6,250$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.981,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f53…54a1backed Jazz50c5,882$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…dc4abacked Raptors50c5,844$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bdd…144fbacked Raptors50c5,833$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6bcf…ad0bbacked Raptors50c5,648$2,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32c5…042cbacked Raptors50c5,592$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+71%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b56…5bdbbacked Jazz50c5,546$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b1…6297backed Jazz50c5,493$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+73%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6246…166bbacked Raptors50c5,445$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.51080%8 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+67.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcec6…6e31backed Raptors50c5,441$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+51.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0c1…8f55backed Jazz50c5,346$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+76.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1913…0ea2backed Jazz50c5,334$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf993…9d87backed Raptors50c5,261$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+61.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dc6…e64cbacked Raptors50c5,037$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa1…2b5cbacked Raptors50c5,025$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Raptors41c4,986$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.327455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa25e…b5abbacked Jazz50c4,978$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a3…dc96backed Jazz50c4,948$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68fc…8762backed Jazz50c4,677$2,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.5540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9477…58eebacked Raptors50c4,653$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5f…9dccbacked Jazz50c4,600$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aea…2adcbacked Raptors50c4,574$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…640fbacked Jazz50c4,550$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee3…794cbacked Raptors50c4,546$2,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2731275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jazz46c4,527$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.982,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59c6…1d57backed Raptors50c4,399$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x532f…bf6fbacked Jazz50c4,328$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4d…a79ebacked Jazz50c4,305$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…9e2fbacked Raptors50c4,276$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa34a…8da9backed Jazz50c4,233$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ecf…4ed7backed Jazz50c4,224$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Raptors48c4,219$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.496848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Raptors49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6317550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8287…24f6backed Jazz50c4,026$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e8…090dbacked Raptors50c3,953$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d9f…200abacked Raptors50c3,768$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Raptors38c3,750$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.091,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz50c3,608$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.514,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors48c3,535$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors50c3,498$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.023,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb0…66e1backed Jazz50c3,498$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.