TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,727,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,727,036 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 636 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies50c894,123$443,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443,505.8887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Hawks51c585,144$297,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287,396.6287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies49c254,039$125,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,142.9472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Hawks50c192,600$96,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,30011457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hawks50c127,148$63,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,57460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies49c75,149$36,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,476.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks50c70,170$35,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,818.31,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Hawks50c64,282$32,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,14123147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hawks55c61,851$33,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,100.6536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Grizzlies50c60,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0004257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks50c52,461$26,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,256.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks50c30,673$15,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,338.71,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Grizzlies45c21,469$9,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,660.9738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks50c15,079$7,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,592.852,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Hawks50c14,680$7,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,34029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies49c12,358$6,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,088.594,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hawks50c12,323$6,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,161.51,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies51c12,221$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,277.1574748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hawks50c11,358$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,725.452,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Hawks50c11,333$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.645754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Hawks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00040350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Grizzlies50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Hawks50c7,600$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Grizzlies50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Hawks50c6,350$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,16827455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hawks50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies38c5,916$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.998,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Hawks53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.3818349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea7…5a9dbacked Hawks53c5,654$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c37…6d9abacked Grizzlies49c5,529$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac26…ea37backed Hawks53c5,094$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Hawks50c4,456$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.9615353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Hawks50c4,450$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22512945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Hawks50c4,227$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.531643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks51c4,200$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.9982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Hawks50c4,166$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.0438946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Grizzlies51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Hawks53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.5814251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies50c3,570$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.821,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks49c3,564$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.511,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Grizzlies45c2,879$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.6814244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Hawks50c2,800$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Hawks53c2,241$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.59952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hawks50c2,238$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies48c2,000$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.243,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Hawks53c1,931$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.416953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Hawks53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.7949246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Hawks53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.7934854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Hawks50c1,781$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.8689853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks61c1,600$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.83,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Hawks61c1,466$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.3420963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Hawks50c1,455$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.549852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks54c1,419$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.742,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Hawks48c1,333$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.2757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Grizzlies47c1,257$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.465655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Hawks50c1,247$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.430453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Hawks53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.087951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Hawks47c1,115$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.3918651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies41c1,097$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.82,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Hawks50c1,089$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9448751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Hawks51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49015753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Hawks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50025155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Hawks50c876.12$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.1957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Hawks50c866.38$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.1922552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Hawks50c827$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.5926756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Grizzlies39c825.63$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9151438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bd5…b74abacked Hawks52c788.5$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+65.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies41c759.88$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.362,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies45c756.95$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.274,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Hawks53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.7213750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Grizzlies47c700$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32949345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Hawks51c657.76$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.5365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Hawks50c640$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32015240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies46c630$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.82,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Grizzlies50c625$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.51,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Grizzlies48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Hawks50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Grizzlies52c577$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.041,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc4…7a8fbacked Hawks51c539$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab0…1b9cbacked Hawks51c538$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.62875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Grizzlies52c532.64$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3858450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb0…66e1backed Hawks51c514$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62bd…52b6backed Hawks56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2209848%47 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Hawks47c499.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.991,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies46c492.73$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.965,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5f…e8debacked Hawks51c484$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies41c482.59$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.863,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd779…7cf7backed Hawks51c461$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Grizzlies47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7583…0469backed Grizzlies51c411.75$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.996550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies35c400.52$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.93,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197a…d3d1backed Hawks51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.168257.3%47 W · 35 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x974a…7878backed Hawks51c391$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Hawks50c390.51$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.521,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b00…3df7backed Hawks51c390$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Grizzlies52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Hawks50c383.59$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.561,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d5…fdc1backed Hawks51c358$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.426100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Hawks50c351.45$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.331354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.