NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96dd465dad98e2b8fc471dd68dee73c2031028dfbf59345068397b21ac0a6452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,525 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 46c | 3,750$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 47c | 3,433$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.7 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hawks | 54c | 2,807$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.01 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hawks | 54c | 1,556$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.76 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Hawks | 54c | 1,357$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.45 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,313$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.16 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Grizzlies | 45c | 1,111$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Grizzlies | 46c | 991.37$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.03 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks | 54c | 806.03$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 52c | 705.43$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.97 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Hawks | 58c | 516.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 53c | 501.73$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Grizzlies | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hawks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 53c | 296.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…bb26backed Hawks | 51c | 293.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 287.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 54c | 232.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Hawks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Hawks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Grizzlies | 44c | 165.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Hawks | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 57c | 153.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Grizzlies | 46c | 139$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Grizzlies | 46c | 136.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 122.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Grizzlies | 48c | 117.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Grizzlies | 43c | 112.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 43c | 110.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 104.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Hawks | 57c | 89.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hawks | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Hawks | 53c | 85.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 50c | 76.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Grizzlies | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Hawks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Hawks | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Grizzlies | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Grizzlies | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies | 43c | 48.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Grizzlies | 45c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Grizzlies | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Grizzlies | 43c | 44.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Hawks | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 53c | 42.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Hawks | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Hawks | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…8581backed Hawks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdade…8e37backed Hawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Grizzlies | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hawks | 58c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…7d08backed Hawks | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Grizzlies | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Grizzlies | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Hawks | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Hawks | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Hawks | 62c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. HawksHawks won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.