NBA · resolved market
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d7038f035ccd2b5176c42d8ac5b582d145835bf5531c6c790c2f3630b2f46d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,987 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Yes | 30c | 1,808$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.39 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 67c | 1,309$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.99 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 68c | 1,302$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…ebccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Yes | 33c | 912.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6005…8b26backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…aa48backed Yes | 34c | 289.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 72c | 268$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Yes | 31c | 214.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 190.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 75c | 176$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes | 37c | 132.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 69c | 100.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 66c | 87.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…58a3backed Yes | 36c | 71.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked No | 69c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. HawksHawks won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.