World Politics · resolved market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9e8784dd743d09e69a69f87debda6d97b175fd3ccfce7238f68274e30196986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 25c | 5,197$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.06 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No | 77c | 4,873$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 2,953$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…9f55backed No | 69c | 1,180$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes | 11c | 1,086$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 13cpaid | +418.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 79c | 1,056$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.95 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe894…bd07backed Yes | 17c | 1,001$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +323.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked Yes | 8c | 527.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 452.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 8c | 416.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.98 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 32c | 393.65$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 380.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 275.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 273.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 255.87$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 70c | 254.35$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 244.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…5f97backed No | 75c | 229.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 227$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…253dbacked No | 73c | 219.79$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 218.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 205.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 139.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 24c | 137.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 121.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 118.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 118.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 72c | 95.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 69c | 91.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 83.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 72c | 80.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes | 27c | 69.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +2,755.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…acdabacked Yes | 25c | 64.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +304.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked No | 65c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 54.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…a2d4backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…34d3backed Yes | 24c | 42.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 34.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 34.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 29.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 73c | 25.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.