World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde94ee9bb90f45efa07a7cb069086941f68939494256c27ff1f9c098b681e218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc990…31e7backed Yes | 18c | 2,531$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 1,458$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 11c | 1,251$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 29c | 555.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…dfe8backed Yes | 16c | 510.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 17c | 399.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…29e2backed Yes | 10c | 295.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes | 6c | 198.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 139.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 73c | 122.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 110.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 102.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 50.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed No | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 70c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.