World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c2924a04e0159dfdcd2996534d45bdbeade41cdf5cc084b532ec35563e83941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 27c | 1,764$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.51 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 1,583$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.11 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 1,453$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,253$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 1,149$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.45 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…31e7backed Yes | 29c | 1,045$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 886.02$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.04 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 32c | 591.17$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 467.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dd…2d4cbacked Yes | 24c | 422.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 19c | 348$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 71c | 299.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 250.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…639bbacked Yes | 20c | 248.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 231.29$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked Yes | 25c | 198.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…de27backed Yes | 31c | 161.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed Yes | 21c | 159.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…d803backed Yes | 25c | 151.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 149.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbd…08f4backed No | 74c | 145.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 139.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 138$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 69c | 135.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 134.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 76c | 122.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 79c | 110.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 106.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 102.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 76c | 91.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 88.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 24c | 86.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…30a9backed Yes | 24c | 78.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 24c | 75.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes | 20c | 68.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 76c | 63.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 35.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 33.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 21.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 79c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 71c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.