World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13eff396ae562ffdc52f4d6897551191e64fa718890f1f26afd051e8b8554dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 24c | 2,433$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.06 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 2,349$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.95 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…5cffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,929$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 77c | 1,784$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.78 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,501$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 1,453$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.62 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes | 32c | 1,180$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.67 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 13c | 1,148$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 80c | 500$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 24c | 499.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 13c | 413.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…3043backed Yes | 24c | 399.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 21c | 381.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dd…2d4cbacked Yes | 30c | 329.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 304.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 277.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…a15fbacked Yes | 27c | 229.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 220.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…639bbacked Yes | 26c | 193.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe894…bd07backed Yes | 30c | 158.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +323.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 20c | 156.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 148.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 23c | 147.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 141.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 139.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 129.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 76c | 126.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…6523backed Yes | 26c | 107.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 79c | 91.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…55fcbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 18c | 69.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes | 17c | 67.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…44b9backed Yes | 27c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 20c | 56.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 80c | 49.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 26c | 42.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cea…7a2fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 39.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 33.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 80c | 30.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked No | 80c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.