World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee3c26a52d890e1b86ff9014d05566e4b05895c968de1e0b86e70c7f2cc9b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc990…31e7backed Yes | 11c | 3,167$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 3c | 2,675$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…8f3abacked Yes | 1c | 1,847$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…dfe8backed Yes | 4c | 1,373$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…b0b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,051$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…4cbdbacked Yes | 6c | 990.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No | 77c | 899.98$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…0904backed Yes | 26c | 657.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…8b60backed Yes | 3c | 568.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 528.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 3c | 455$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 365.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 318.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…55fcbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…4dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 215.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 93.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…0042backed Yes | 16c | 69.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 74c | 38.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.