World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe689107d5893d698f499e186bf64b5a70b9b927654eaacf934b0582604c545f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 18c | 2,746$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.51 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…31e7backed Yes | 27c | 1,960$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 24c | 1,791$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.18 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 1,452$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.29 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 23c | 1,450$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed No | 67c | 996.41$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 28c | 435.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb443…a0cabacked No | 73c | 426.55$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…dfe8backed Yes | 25c | 278.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 79c | 255.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…29e2backed Yes | 17c | 252.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 231.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…2a18backed Yes | 26c | 230.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 203.94$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked Yes | 34c | 188.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 185.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 15c | 175.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…55fcbacked Yes | 18c | 169.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 159$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…4d45backed Yes | 18c | 141.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 139$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…8216backed Yes | 19c | 124.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 124.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 67c | 122.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 122.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 118.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 110.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 94.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 77.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…30a9backed Yes | 31c | 72.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb604…5e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 70.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…2cafbacked Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 77c | 60.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 54.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 54.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 48.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…49aebacked Yes | 34c | 32.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 38c | 29.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.