NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b0506dbaa710731ff6b3153298e58bc8d5bae8c232a039512ffd29b2230d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 2,717$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.74 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 2,594$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.71 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over | 51c | 2,309$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.31 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,103$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 41c | 2,042$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 44c | 1,907$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.88 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed Over | 61c | 1,622$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 1c | 1,608$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 63c | 1,476$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.27 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 71c | 1,261$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 29c | 1,158$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…7017backed Under | 37c | 668.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 49c | 585.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 540.34$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.54 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 56c | 512.54$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 483.28$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 52c | 377.83$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 49c | 306.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 299.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 35c | 249.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…9f55backed Under | 45c | 131.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 39c | 127.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 109.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 99.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 51c | 87.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Under | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 16c | 69.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 60.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 41c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Over | 32c | 54.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Under | 37c | 51.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 63c | 50.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…691bbacked Under | 30c | 49.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Under | 32c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Under | 32c | 47.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 41c | 46.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Under | 32c | 46.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 58c | 38.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Under | 72c | 25.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.