NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf96840db2ef1b5ff77d547b1ea4511fb281b3776b76dbad4d7679b3f4ae072f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 50c | 125,062$62,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,541.38 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 100,000$53,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,000 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 50c | 82,508$41,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,254.09 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 38,425$18,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,484.08 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 26,056$13,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,028.12 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 21,331$10,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,844.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 10,144$4,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,376.44 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 50c | 9,372$4,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,685.85 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 8,098$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,277.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 5,600$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 52c | 3,400$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.99 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Under | 53c | 3,019$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 1,527$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.87 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,206$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 440$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Over | 52c | 232.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 47c | 210.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 193.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…9387backed Under | 12c | 169.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…f5f5backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…26a7backed Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed Under | 54c | 73.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 66c | 71.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…16f1backed Under | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…896cbacked Over | 50c | 56.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…91ddbacked Under | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 47c | 53.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 50c | 35.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 52c | 34.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Under | 54c | 34.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…dce6backed Over | 48c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b7…5383backed Under | 53c | 31.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…7731backed Under | 53c | 30.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…8352backed Over | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…5822backed Over | 50c | 30.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 47c | 27.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 54c | 26.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 51c | 26.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…4d1abacked Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.