NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd875dfcf101beef321194604f2134930220d399d715d46c9d739d1422f3900d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Grizzlies | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…23f3backed Grizzlies | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Warriors | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…0e3cbacked Warriors | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…1282backed Grizzlies | 28c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…8cb9backed Warriors | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Warriors | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Warriors | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…098ebacked Warriors | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…f22dbacked Grizzlies | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Grizzlies | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…08fbbacked Grizzlies | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…c2f9backed Grizzlies | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f45…7e11backed Grizzlies | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Warriors | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1090…1503backed Warriors | 71c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked Warriors | 71c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…08d0backed Warriors | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad1…b717backed Warriors | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…f487backed Warriors | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Warriors | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353a…06c5backed Warriors | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed Warriors | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…baafbacked Warriors | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f99…0a7cbacked Warriors | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…d6c3backed Warriors | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe1…14e5backed Warriors | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…3d75backed Warriors | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Warriors | 72c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Warriors | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…e1dcbacked Warriors | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…6693backed Warriors | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…fd9fbacked Warriors | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…16c8backed Warriors | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…3724backed Warriors | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…4cfcbacked Warriors | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…58e2backed Warriors | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…abd6backed Warriors | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Warriors | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…0528backed Warriors | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Warriors | 72c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…7aadbacked Warriors | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Warriors | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…47e0backed Warriors | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed Warriors | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…5ff4backed Warriors | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…596dbacked Warriors | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…a9fcbacked Warriors | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed Warriors | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…85bbbacked Warriors | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…8ff8backed Warriors | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.