NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9003213aed7d93faa8dd923e8310d1389f4e40f6e607b7b1374d0417514ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8764…604abacked Under | 57c | 13,859$7,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,899.63 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +14.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 6,921$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,591.75 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 6,650$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.54 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 3,034$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 825.91$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.83 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 549.86$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 45c | 300$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 279.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 251.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 200.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 186.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 111.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 42c | 109.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 61c | 108.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…3449backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Under | 53c | 62.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 74c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 26c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…ff31backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f911backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…d2f3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 55c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Under | 53c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 60c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Over | 49c | 20.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.