NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6784dda2ce5532a35e3f79c749f3e987b113302fe24a6b822fe320a8657a2ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Warriors, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Grizzlies | 47c | 15,120$7,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,012.34 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 53c | 14,869$7,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,866.09 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 3,350$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 55c | 2,827$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.07 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies | 45c | 2,308$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.04 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Warriors | 56c | 2,109$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.02 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors | 54c | 2,087$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,027$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.04 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a070backed Warriors | 52c | 2,027$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Warriors | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 45c | 1,955$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Grizzlies | 74c | 1,319$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.22 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,145$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.4 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Grizzlies | 56c | 1,006$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.64 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…ce5bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 860$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770c…d9b2backed Warriors | 53c | 760$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 46c | 623.29$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 45c | 578.05$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…c49ebacked Warriors | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Warriors | 42c | 479.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Warriors | 53c | 459$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.23 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a99…bcbbbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…31dfbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Warriors | 59c | 407$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.13 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 56c | 388.17$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.97 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Grizzlies | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Grizzlies | 64c | 276.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 45c | 244.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.57 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Warriors | 60c | 229$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Grizzlies | 49c | 204.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Warriors | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 60c | 140.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Grizzlies | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Grizzlies | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…70e1backed Grizzlies | 41c | 116$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Warriors | 53c | 114.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Warriors | 45c | 113.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Grizzlies | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Grizzlies | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Warriors | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Warriors | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Warriors | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Warriors | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Warriors | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 24c | 63.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…99cdbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 62.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Warriors | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Warriors | 59c | 53.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Grizzlies | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Warriors | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Grizzlies | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Grizzlies | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…7136backed Grizzlies | 49c | 39.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Grizzlies | 49c | 38.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 56c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Warriors | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 29c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…fedcbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 30.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…4bf4backed Warriors | 54c | 30.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 144 | 66%95 W · 49 L | +17.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…e16abacked Warriors | 54c | 27.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…b08abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Grizzlies | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f38…280ebacked Warriors | 53c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Warriors | 60c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…b84abacked Warriors | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Warriors | 59c | 17.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.