NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5395eebe4a9b00df4c5c38c0422986abfa9bf85bf22a2d27ebaebdde48433f2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 12,205$5,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,609.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 9,975$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 45c | 2,560$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 38c | 1,179$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.86 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 888$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 854.02$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 527.71$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 485.56$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.34 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 54c | 457.76$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.19 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 60c | 442.85$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.39 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 384.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 58c | 366.83$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 261.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 209.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 45c | 202.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 152.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 52c | 149.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 39c | 138.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82b…91d3backed Over | 42c | 119.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 62c | 113.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 100.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 71c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 67.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 52c | 63.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 52.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 60c | 50.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 54c | 38.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…d2edbacked Over | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…bd03backed Over | 39c | 33.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 39c | 31.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Over | 47c | 31.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Over | 43c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Over | 39c | 30.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Under | 48c | 25.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 61c | 24.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Under | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4b…9f51backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…3c7abacked Under | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 61c | 17.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…e362backed Under | 61c | 17.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…9f44backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c8…c187backed Under | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.