TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,064 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…b407backed Under51c26,000$13,260 inLost-$13,260580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe4…04abbacked Over49c26,000$12,740 inWon+$13,260633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dca…6bdcbacked Under51c7,800$3,978 inLost-$3,9781833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa93d…db7dbacked Over49c7,800$3,822 inWon+$3,9781729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under53c3,545$1,864 inLost-$1,863.531,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c2,472$1,175 inWon+$1,297.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over49c1,990$975 inWon+$1,014.824744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,580$829 inLost-$82950754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c1,506$693 inLost-$692.564,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over54c1,493$806 inWon+$686.931,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Over49c979.59$480 inWon+$499.5931455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Under52c440$229 inLost-$228.88252.4%43 W · 39 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under12c200$24 inLost-$241,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under53c172.12$92 inLost-$92.024,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under66c151.04$100 inLost-$1007848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under62c113.56$70 inLost-$70.233,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over50c104$52 inWon+$5255533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over49c97.06$48 inWon+$49.543,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Over47c82.92$39 inWon+$43.9215040%60 W · 90 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over37c64$24 inWon+$40.322,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over34c63.75$21 inWon+$42.391,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under58c54.34$32 inLost-$31.5757657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c51.77$23 inLost-$22.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over35c44.67$16 inWon+$28.8990357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over47c42.13$20 inWon+$22.331,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over50c40$20 inWon+$20.253839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over42c35.25$15 inWon+$20.4422643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over44c35$15 inWon+$19.61,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c28…ff31backed Over38c32$12 inWon+$19.841764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5ab4…50acbacked Over48c30$14 inWon+$15.68351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c29.76$13 inWon+$16.673,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under63c26.37$17 inLost-$16.5440849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over47c26.16$12 inWon+$13.8695047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc766…c4d9backed Over47c25.53$12 inWon+$13.531546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170f…790bbacked Under49c25.51$12 inLost-$12.54156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under61c22.85$14 inLost-$141,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under66c20$13 inLost-$13.237959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Over52c20$10 inWon+$9.619346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.