NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805d65b08daf45bd2ffc5eced24293bf2b1442ea797de8dad25f6d63ec83dc34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 43,204$20,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,994.19 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 34,704$18,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,523.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 47c | 6,425$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425.39 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 54c | 6,390$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450.6 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 6,004$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.06 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 4,941$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.32 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,590$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.87 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 2,526$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 2,238$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 46c | 2,070$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.8 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,822$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 1,503$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.47 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 53c | 1,135$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.15 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 1,027$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.38 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 518.18$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 492$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.76 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Under | 54c | 369$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 256$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 72c | 208.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Under | 56c | 179.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 48c | 176.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 156.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 65c | 134.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Over | 74c | 134.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 48c | 123.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 114.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 53c | 93.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…10a7backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Under | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 54c | 61.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe035…ae18backed Over | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 42c | 47.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…f500backed Over | 74c | 38.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 29.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Over | 50c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 52c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 53c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.