TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Golden Knights, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,230,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,248,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,230,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 693 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Golden Knights0c375,947$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.953721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+210.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Golden Knights50c131,832$65,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,797.543046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Ducks52c42,094$21,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,186.0228749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Ducks58c35,233$20,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,807.392433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Ducks49c32,134$15,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,388.3556649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ducks63c26,905$17,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,846.8989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Ducks51c23,308$11,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,420.7251452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ducks51c22,000$11,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,78010050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Golden Knights48c20,738$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.852240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Golden Knights49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights36c14,434$5,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,167.131,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Golden Knights24c13,750$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3006833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Golden Knights30c13,400$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0203450%17 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks51c12,481$6,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,159.91,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Ducks51c12,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8802334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-26.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Golden Knights48c11,919$5,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,757.384161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Ducks51c11,421$5,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,605.5361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Golden Knights49c10,959$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3701250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Ducks48c10,100$4,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,254.931,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Golden Knights48c10,000$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7753246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b8…09e5backed Golden Knights30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights3c9,909$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Ducks51c9,871$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,844.0752050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Golden Knights0c9,581$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1618520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Ducks49c8,900$4,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5394555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Ducks54c8,333$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.333354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights47c8,058$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,773.0940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Golden Knights49c7,777$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.44139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Golden Knights48c7,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99b4…f541backed Golden Knights36c6,207$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Golden Knights0c6,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Golden Knights47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Golden Knights11c5,625$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.5340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Ducks55c5,496$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.155276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x67d3…96cbbacked Golden Knights50c5,128$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Ducks52c4,994$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.1220756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b8f…449bbacked Ducks72c4,926$3,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3464…8112backed Golden Knights50c4,703$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.32837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Ducks56c4,643$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.02862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked Golden Knights48c4,502$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Golden Knights50c4,401$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.62825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks57c4,374$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.481,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Golden Knights46c4,285$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.2227044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Ducks52c4,037$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.881741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Ducks51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Golden Knights34c3,951$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.4433234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Golden Knights31c3,832$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.367755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a6…b9debacked Ducks53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Golden Knights35c3,650$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.630259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Ducks51c3,648$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.5513333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Golden Knights49c3,620$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.676950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Ducks69c3,613$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.061338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2571…ac6bbacked Golden Knights34c3,493$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Golden Knights30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Ducks67c3,214$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.093036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Golden Knights48c3,048$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.8222946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights26c3,014$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.522,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Ducks51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Golden Knights51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.9711153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Golden Knights46c2,959$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.7118452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89b…4b6bbacked Golden Knights35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9f…26e8backed Ducks70c2,843$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Ducks73c2,744$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.364173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Ducks49c2,714$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.351060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Golden Knights24c2,678$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6371258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+86.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights52c2,607$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.7889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Ducks49c2,449$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.9814940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Ducks51c2,297$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.3241354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Golden Knights42c2,265$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.3512654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Golden Knights38c2,222$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.368056.3%45 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Golden Knights50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10033652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Ducks51c2,100$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.9833554%181 W · 154 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.9583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Ducks66c2,065$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.472343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Golden Knights49c2,061$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bc…1b77backed Golden Knights49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012258.2%71 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Ducks53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ducks51c1,980$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.979258.7%54 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Ducks53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.792352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Golden Knights32c1,855$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Golden Knights50c1,850$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.464438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Golden Knights29c1,818$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.644131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Ducks58c1,713$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.632458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Ducks53c1,700$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79961959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…5964backed Golden Knights5c1,674$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Golden Knights1c1,604$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991016.9%7 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa574…5f84backed Ducks51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Golden Knights32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Ducks53c1,491$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.244355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights9c1,462$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7361848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Ducks52c1,428$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.664951%25 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Ducks52c1,400$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6722552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Golden Knights48c1,300$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62434845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights38c1,269$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.951,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Ducks74c1,212$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eae…ebbfbacked Ducks69c1,183$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Golden Knights34c1,177$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9711…3fa1backed Golden Knights40c1,175$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Golden Knights41c1,171$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47617442.5%74 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Golden Knights40c1,164$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.8510343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.