NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8642c53ca903ebe6e610964cb33223fa5e6d1738a978af2d502c768ab981969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Ducks, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa7e…6f50backed Golden Knights | 63c | 6,325$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Golden Knights | 57c | 5,760$3,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.94 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Ducks | 37c | 3,024$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.95 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ducks | 22c | 2,059$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.43 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Ducks | 55c | 1,949$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 69c | 1,589$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.31 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Ducks | 39c | 1,464$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.74 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Ducks | 30c | 1,211$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 1,058$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Ducks | 38c | 1,043$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.34 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Ducks | 31c | 712.87$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 29c | 662.32$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Ducks | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 495.92$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Ducks | 32c | 404.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Golden Knights | 62c | 398.6$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Ducks | 31c | 356.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Ducks | 36c | 355.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 347.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Golden Knights | 71c | 287.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ducks | 45c | 268.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks | 49c | 267$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ducks | 75c | 258.34$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf50…b426backed Ducks | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Ducks | 31c | 206.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Ducks | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Ducks | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Golden Knights | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Ducks | 48c | 176.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Ducks | 47c | 175.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Golden Knights | 26c | 170$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Ducks | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Golden Knights | 59c | 145.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 36c | 141.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Golden Knights | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Golden Knights | 39c | 91.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Ducks | 31c | 89.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Golden Knights | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Ducks | 30c | 80.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ducks | 54c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Golden Knights | 70c | 65.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…5cf5backed Ducks | 24c | 62.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Golden Knights | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Ducks | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…95f9backed Ducks | 31c | 54.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Golden Knights | 63c | 54.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Ducks | 40c | 52.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Ducks | 46c | 50.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Golden Knights | 68c | 50.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Ducks | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Golden Knights | 56c | 49.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Golden Knights | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Golden Knights | 71c | 48.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Golden Knights | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Golden Knights | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Ducks | 31c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…5afdbacked Ducks | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Ducks | 29c | 40.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Golden Knights | 69c | 36.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Ducks | 45c | 34.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Golden Knights | 70c | 33.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…5ff2backed Ducks | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ducks | 49c | 28.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Ducks | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Golden Knights | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Golden Knights | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Golden Knights | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Golden Knights | 61c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksDucks won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.