NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f5afeac588a48315130596c0e18279d0eaafdcc61cf84b2f50d33cc6d68a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 16c | 378.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under | 45c | 322.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 40c | 318$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 59c | 299.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 16c | 216.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 26c | 208.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 52c | 201.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 196.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 173.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 18c | 141.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Under | 8c | 128.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 106.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 60c | 97.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 49c | 76.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 71c | 75.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 73c | 61.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 40c | 60.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 75c | 59.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Over | 61c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 41c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 48c | 43.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…50c4backed Over | 60c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Over | 60c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Over | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Over | 60c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…d4a1backed Over | 60c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Over | 60c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Over | 60c | 22.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Over | 60c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked Over | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…8b41backed Over | 60c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Over | 60c | 20.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…19afbacked Over | 60c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksDucks won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.