TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Nets, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,600,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,680,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,600,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 816 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d16…d24dbacked Grizzlies70c201,167$141,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,005.088961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets30c189,216$56,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,764.8387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Nets30c160,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,0009263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies45c87,113$39,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,051.791,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets31c70,000$21,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,699.9951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nets29c69,161$20,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,356.6154539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nets29c57,418$16,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,651.221,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Grizzlies70c43,007$30,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,902.126358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Grizzlies69c33,200$23,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,131.9959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Grizzlies70c29,480$20,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,84429245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Grizzlies70c29,161$20,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,748.182166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8262…2ea2backed Nets30c25,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Grizzlies75c24,804$18,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,305.0127865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nets46c24,418$11,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,121.9883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Grizzlies70c22,527$15,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.032,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6eb…dcf1backed Grizzlies70c21,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3004100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Grizzlies70c19,920$13,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,950.834961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nets30c19,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ea…c24abacked Grizzlies69c18,669$12,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,726.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Nets51c15,802$8,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,114.9910255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies71c15,557$11,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.248,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies73c15,382$11,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.933,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Grizzlies70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Nets30c13,688$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,106.3827747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Grizzlies70c13,286$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,985.82,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06b…42fcbacked Nets30c13,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Grizzlies71c11,700$8,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,39348352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies70c11,618$8,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,501.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets28c10,907$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.521,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies70c10,819$7,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.522,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies69c10,756$7,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Grizzlies71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Nets30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Grizzlies70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets47c9,138$4,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,297.543,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets20c9,026$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.694,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Grizzlies71c8,786$6,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.7114663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Grizzlies71c8,247$5,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.631,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies58c7,200$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.792,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Grizzlies70c7,035$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.528643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c38…e372backed Grizzlies70c6,950$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Grizzlies70c6,800$4,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Nets70c6,792$4,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,74410947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets20c6,139$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.221,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda8…2fd6backed Grizzlies70c6,100$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Grizzlies70c5,943$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.8628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Nets2c5,939$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6764517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Nets35c5,777$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006838.2%26 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Nets40c5,666$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,267.8512143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Nets71c5,647$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0006758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Grizzlies71c5,634$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.813063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nets41c5,578$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.2785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets29c5,555$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.9536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ff…2390backed Grizzlies69c5,368$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Nets29c5,172$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Grizzlies70c5,079$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9617653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Nets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Nets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Nets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Grizzlies53c4,906$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.6610158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…5102backed Nets31c4,817$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.119047.8%43 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Grizzlies64c4,709$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.261,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c8…753dbacked Nets22c4,679$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…6d29backed Nets32c4,448$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.2614443.8%63 W · 81 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Nets30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9338…8addbacked Grizzlies70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Nets31c4,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Nets25c3,951$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003050%15 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+37.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Grizzlies71c3,732$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.3947856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Nets27c3,646$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005621.4%12 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Grizzlies70c3,450$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03510144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Grizzlies70c3,350$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00516039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Grizzlies70c3,323$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.0426751.7%138 W · 129 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Grizzlies69c3,315$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.3338148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Grizzlies70c3,314$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.295971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Nets33c3,312$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.6535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Nets27c3,280$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7413835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Nets30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90011358.4%66 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Grizzlies70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Nets31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9307439.2%29 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Nets30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bd…b539backed Grizzlies69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.971030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9679549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Grizzlies69c2,995$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.4315274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets53c2,967$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.945,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Grizzlies70c2,952$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.618553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Grizzlies72c2,797$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.5411654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Grizzlies70c2,784$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.182259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Nets22c2,616$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.3661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Nets27c2,539$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.6450838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Grizzlies70c2,537$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.4762351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Nets30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nets14c2,438$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Nets42c2,436$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.5724752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60de…6453backed Nets31c2,419$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.30per pick37cpaid-79.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Nets29c2,419$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.3831538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Nets29c2,400$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.0186641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Grizzlies70c2,372$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.7322459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Nets14c2,232$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.045129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets45c2,218$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.693,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.