NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x047601040b7532211d3c371914678b8fefc2e018d6eec9f59afa99eb8bc02af9

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Nets
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,809 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Grizzlies	60c	4,139$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,639.49	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	40c	2,028$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.74	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Nets	7c	1,760$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.2	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	39c	1,664$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.58	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Nets	6c	1,311$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.66	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Nets	40c	1,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Nets	2c	822.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	85	12.9%11 W · 74 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Grizzlies	51c	714.69$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.2	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Nets	30c	712.64$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.25	138	35.5%49 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies	60c	659.35$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.83	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Nets	5c	600$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Grizzlies	35c	571.43$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.43	163	35.6%58 W · 105 L	-12.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Nets	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets	65c	420.43$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.28	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Nets	3c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets	45c	312.06$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.91	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Grizzlies	56c	250$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Grizzlies	60c	235.66$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.26	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets	39c	209.16$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.57	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb94…04f4backed Nets	22c	204.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	226	33.2%75 W · 151 L	+14.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies	55c	197.23$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.82	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies	61c	85$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.51	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Grizzlies	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Grizzlies	61c	80$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd9…8323backed Nets	77c	65.78$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies	54c	61.44$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.51	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed Grizzlies	61c	49.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.18	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Nets	44c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Nets	39c	39.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Grizzlies	51c	35.29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets	36c	33.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Grizzlies	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets	38c	26.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8616…639ebacked Nets	77c	26.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nets	39c	25.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Grizzlies	59c	23.82$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.77	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event