NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9154780858229e6cceeb2b11f0fcad94fcdd9db07b4d4e73861d0095731dfe8

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	73c	1,797$1,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	56c	1,735$972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.33	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	39c	909.62$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.4	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under	61c	813.05$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.05	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over	33c	694.31$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.95	138	35.5%49 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over	53c	384$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.52	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	43c	303.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.58	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Under	46c	300$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	54c	295.66$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.66	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0986…9c4bbacked Under	61c	246.21$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.29	196	49.5%97 W · 99 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	37c	208.42$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.13	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf4…6817backed Over	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	84	26.2%22 W · 62 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	60c	196.73$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.69	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Under	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	58c	154.76$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over	42c	154.76$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Over	38c	144.67$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	113$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.37	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	51c	113$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.37	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	39c	81.97$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.97	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b06…f9cebacked Under	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	53c	63.69$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.76	246	45.9%113 W · 133 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Over	53c	52.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under	56c	50.8$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.35	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Over	54c	49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9050…0a7abacked Over	44c	41.34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	183	54.1%99 W · 84 L	+11.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	60c	40.67$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	60c	40.67$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	26c	39.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12f7…c7fabacked Under	52c	35.17$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.88	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7422…e383backed Under	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under	62c	26.68$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.14	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e6…5a30backed Under	60c	23.33$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.33	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Under	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event