NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9697f3b2028a6c930b70826fe304857506974bc0d14a055242cf17559d9686

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Grizzlies, Nets
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,699
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,699 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8566…c626backed Nets	72c	2,539$1,823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.87	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Grizzlies	55c	2,500$1,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,375	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets	45c	2,186$984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.3	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Grizzlies	54c	2,089$1,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.12	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies	49c	1,994$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975.88	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies	54c	1,944$1,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.02	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nets	52c	1,926$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$926.02	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Nets	45c	1,800$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$990	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies	55c	1,798$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.9	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nets	49c	1,228$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.08	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies	52c	1,210$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Nets	44c	1,195$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670.79	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nets	47c	981.63$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.03	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Nets	46c	857$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$462.78	117	53%62 W · 55 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x236a…1a3ebacked Nets	46c	627.52$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.86	83	41%34 W · 49 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies	40c	507.24$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.33	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies	55c	469$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.95	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Grizzlies	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Grizzlies	49c	354$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.32	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Nets	44c	344.49$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.26	138	35.5%49 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Grizzlies	40c	318.99$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.32	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Nets	45c	260.86$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.47	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies	10c	250$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies	54c	215.85$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.56	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies	44c	207$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.93	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Grizzlies	53c	199.99$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.99	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Nets	50c	162$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.76	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Nets	49c	139$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.89	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Grizzlies	55c	110$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf891…d3b6backed Grizzlies	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Nets	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	263	39.5%104 W · 159 L	-13.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Grizzlies	67c	100$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	151	61.6%93 W · 58 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nets	46c	86.96$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.96	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies	54c	74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies	52c	71.08$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.18	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Grizzlies	55c	65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…a994backed Grizzlies	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	84	51.2%43 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies	42c	58.42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.31	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Nets	51c	56$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.44	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Grizzlies	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies	62c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets	55c	46.87$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.01	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Grizzlies	50c	45.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.12	574	44.1%253 W · 321 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x640f…4cc0backed Grizzlies	51c	45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	-11.2wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies	55c	44$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Nets	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	104	26.9%28 W · 76 L	-9.6wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies	45c	43.26$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies	53c	39.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Nets	45c	37.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.81	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Grizzlies	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nets	45c	35.03$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Nets	52c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.73	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets	42c	31.71$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.34	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb771…e3fbbacked Grizzlies	52c	24.62$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0c…8dbbbacked Grizzlies	52c	24.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Nets	46c	22.3$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Nets	46c	22.22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a52…c0e8backed Nets	46c	21.86$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Grizzlies	52c	20.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event