NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad9cec1baf93efba4f3446e727c9e7097704eee063b94317ce1b120a606f560

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Under	57c	9,611$5,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,110.8	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	44c	5,211$2,283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,282.99	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Over	44c	2,811$1,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,236.84	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…600bbacked Over	47c	2,361$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.69	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.9wins	-0.35per pick	44cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	43c	2,234$970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.91	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under	56c	1,935$1,084 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.46	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under	56c	1,630$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$717.2	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over	40c	955$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.52	138	35.5%49 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	54c	845$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.7	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Under	46c	700$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Under	68c	591.97$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.97	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	54c	514.99$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.9	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	43c	453.1$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.06	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Under	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	44c	323.21$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.68	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	54c	300$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	47c	286$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.42	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Over	56c	272$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.64	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	56c	268.39$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.25	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	233.15$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	54c	211$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.06	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	55c	191.8$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.31	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	45c	170$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under	50c	154$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.3	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	43c	150$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.5	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	54c	144.6$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.58	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	50c	120.65$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.96	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	32c	109.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.3	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	78c	95$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over	46c	70$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.97	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over	44c	69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	49c	62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	50c	59.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.82	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under	55c	50.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	50c	49.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfdb…512cbacked Over	44c	45.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	26c	45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over	45c	44.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	118	53.4%63 W · 55 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Over	50c	43.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	43cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	42c	39.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over	49c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	54c	34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.64	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under	54c	25.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.54	172	43%74 W · 98 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	51c	22.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event