AI · resolved market
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x906d4235b294e2af5e2de8c794a3cdee616e27596afe6545c24d26dd5825c4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,290,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,290,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2ac…3e0abacked Yes | 0c | 70,059$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…0c1bbacked Yes | 0c | 69,849$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed27…76a0backed Yes | 0c | 68,353$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c6…5888backed Yes | 0c | 68,310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…0b8dbacked Yes | 0c | 68,146$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…7cb8backed Yes | 0c | 67,896$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…7250backed Yes | 0c | 67,890$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1a…3c3fbacked Yes | 0c | 67,889$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…0220backed Yes | 0c | 67,796$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…d8bdbacked Yes | 0c | 67,677$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…e56dbacked Yes | 0c | 47,873$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…6c2fbacked Yes | 0c | 47,240$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…eb44backed Yes | 0c | 47,151$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…5f2ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…8d7abacked Yes | 0c | 46,932$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9a77backed Yes | 0c | 46,893$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…00e9backed Yes | 0c | 46,516$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c1…0acbbacked Yes | 0c | 46,469$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…9768backed Yes | 0c | 46,387$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…bedabacked Yes | 0c | 46,241$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff9…3990backed Yes | 0c | 46,153$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…6753backed Yes | 0c | 46,052$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…6627backed Yes | 0c | 45,878$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…036ebacked Yes | 0c | 45,878$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…cc7fbacked Yes | 0c | 45,824$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…a4f3backed Yes | 0c | 45,792$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…8d7cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,748$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf61…401cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,695$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f62bbacked Yes | 0c | 45,638$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838e…cba6backed Yes | 0c | 45,614$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…a37cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,554$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…c553backed Yes | 0c | 45,530$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0033…f7adbacked Yes | 0c | 45,487$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009c…199dbacked Yes | 0c | 45,347$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…56efbacked Yes | 0c | 45,279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…9701backed Yes | 0c | 45,203$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…5379backed Yes | 0c | 45,170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc166…cb2fbacked Yes | 0c | 45,156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…6f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 45,071$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c62…cbf6backed Yes | 0c | 44,722$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 29,922$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,999$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…810bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…d5d0backed Yes | 0c | 18,810$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,834$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d557backed Yes | 0c | 6,661$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.