AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1a31cb536284331021e5d81ea8f08d59227f6f3a42e71df684c4ac7e81201d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $523,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 46,261$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.83 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 13c | 12,048$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.34 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 7c | 8,323$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 7,943$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.28 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 1c | 7,467$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e65…9212backed Yes | 1c | 5,892$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…661bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,046$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked Yes | 20c | 4,133$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,487$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 3,188$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f0f6backed Yes | 20c | 2,871$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,628$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…db09backed Yes | 11c | 2,571$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…1455backed Yes | 29c | 2,413$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 14c | 2,364$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,319$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed Yes | 1c | 2,157$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…6024backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…30fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,979$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 26c | 1,935$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 6c | 1,795$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…14bebacked Yes | 11c | 1,788$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 23c | 1,525$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 42c | 1,488$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…53bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…1ad1backed Yes | 8c | 1,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 73c | 1,230$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.61 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,228$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…25f4backed Yes | 7c | 1,090$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…af2dbacked Yes | 5c | 934.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…3a28backed Yes | 22c | 901.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 781.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 6c | 753.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 22c | 750$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…3668backed Yes | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed Yes | 7c | 676.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 9c | 644.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…61d4backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…7349backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…0cb0backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 4c | 545$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 515.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…9d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 514.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 500.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes | 36c | 495.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…49b0backed Yes | 8c | 478.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…9d8dbacked Yes | 13c | 477.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 7c | 474.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 24c | 463.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed Yes | 19c | 457.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…fd3abacked Yes | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d05…f421backed Yes | 12c | 426.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 34c | 423.06$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed Yes | 12c | 420$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Yes | 24c | 409.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 72c | 408.86$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…44eabacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7a…7208backed Yes | 9c | 370$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 27c | 367.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 16c | 356.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 43c | 349.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 329.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 31c | 322.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 290.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 258.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 7c | 256.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 59c | 237.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9962…046cbacked Yes | 29c | 226.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…c498backed Yes | 7c | 215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…5757backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…6e79backed Yes | 30c | 200.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743b…d8cabacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…992dbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…92f9backed Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…753bbacked Yes | 14c | 180.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed Yes | 39c | 154.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…7036backed Yes | 33c | 151.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Yes | 13c | 149.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…9603backed Yes | 33c | 143.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…8c7fbacked Yes | 66c | 143.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…c354backed Yes | 21c | 142.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 10c | 139.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.