Us Politics · resolved market
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76d24d26a1833033ca57128facaa3931e50ecf0304ac8fede8cb763ac485872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 6,734$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.64 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,006$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 13c | 5,732$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.29 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 3c | 4,134$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 15c | 4,118$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.74 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…8779backed Yes | 1c | 3,822$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 17c | 3,644$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.89 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,486$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 3,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,068$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 0c | 2,728$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 2,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes | 2c | 2,642$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,283$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,219$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,810$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,439$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 1,320$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,309$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,045$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 18c | 1,007$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 862.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 680$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 643.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 606$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes | 13c | 423.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes | 13c | 388.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes | 22c | 282.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 202$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 22c | 166.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…71a2backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 106.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 78c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 79c | 28.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 80c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.