TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c6,734$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes2c6,006$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.415935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes13c5,732$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.2910630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes3c4,134$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes15c4,118$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7410749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0193…8779backed Yes1c3,822$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes17c3,644$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.898843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c3,486$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes1c3,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes2c3,200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.832626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes2c3,068$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.812222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes0c2,728$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c2,667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes2c2,642$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c2,283$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,219$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.473989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c1,810$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.628015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d07…293fbacked Yes1c1,439$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+114.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes15c1,320$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19912643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes3c1,309$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes2c1,045$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.732123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes18c1,007$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.333542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c862.27$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c680$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c643.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.162154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c606$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35925.4%15 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes13c423.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes13c388.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes22c282.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c202$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.421,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes22c166.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.748229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1226…71a2backed Yes16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes15c106.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No80c106$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.212630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8919436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef71…704fbacked No78c99.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51566.7%10 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes20c66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No79c28.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.036572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.643138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked No80c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.044845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.