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Cricket · resolved market

Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Adelaide Strikersof Adelaide Strikers, Sydney Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,111 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbec7…4f48backed Adelaide Strikers63c5,530$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.47683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Adelaide Strikers38c4,432$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.159851%50 W · 48 L-9.1wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Adelaide Strikers49c4,067$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.364348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69b…7b0cbacked Sydney Thunder48c2,709$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.2522552.4%118 W · 107 L+20.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Adelaide Strikers49c2,589$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.252454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Sydney Thunder47c2,442$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.8713151.9%68 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Adelaide Strikers43c2,370$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.683537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Adelaide Strikers55c1,942$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.249154.9%50 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Sydney Thunder45c1,770$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.52850%14 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ed…cfe3backed Sydney Thunder69c1,667$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.44168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Sydney Thunder45c1,443$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.0629049%142 W · 148 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1599…a8b6backed Sydney Thunder47c1,299$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.0332337.2%120 W · 203 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Adelaide Strikers45c1,297$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.633042.4%140 W · 190 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Sydney Thunder38c1,255$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.91643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Adelaide Strikers28c1,083$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.244639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc172…47cbbacked Sydney Thunder46c1,081$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4954131.7%13 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Sydney Thunder58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580185.6%1 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.29per pick34cpaid-90.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9d8e…349fbacked Adelaide Strikers47c833.15$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Sydney Thunder42c809.08$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34315429.9%46 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Adelaide Strikers40c675.01$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.2618257.1%104 W · 78 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Sydney Thunder45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d09…1167backed Adelaide Strikers43c601.93$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.085532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sydney Thunder56c546.71$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.7277351.6%399 W · 374 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Sydney Thunder49c540.02$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.414944.9%22 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Sydney Thunder58c530.29$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1514431.9%46 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d7…a36dbacked Sydney Thunder60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a93…5804backed Sydney Thunder4c455.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed Sydney Thunder52c453.02$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.481573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeed0…dd5ebacked Sydney Thunder54c446.83$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-72.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b12…8a30backed Adelaide Strikers26c440.73$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.734027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Sydney Thunder45c436.67$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.569131.1%215 W · 476 L+1.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Adelaide Strikers56c431.82$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8215850.6%80 W · 78 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Sydney Thunder51c389.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006521.5%14 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Sydney Thunder54c379.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.999849%48 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Sydney Thunder9c306.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.551421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+69.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ad…34debacked Adelaide Strikers56c299.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1323100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+119.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x979f…4e13backed Sydney Thunder73c272.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4690…94fbbacked Adelaide Strikers52c257$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3615151.7%78 W · 73 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a1…e821backed Adelaide Strikers52c253$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4423555.3%130 W · 105 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Adelaide Strikers49c250$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Sydney Thunder9c238.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.47263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7a…500cbacked Adelaide Strikers57c237.09$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9523854.2%129 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ad…993dbacked Adelaide Strikers61c230.3$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.311058.2%64 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…1cc3backed Adelaide Strikers41c223.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0626930.5%82 W · 187 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Sydney Thunder45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Sydney Thunder54c185.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013241.7%55 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Adelaide Strikers54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Adelaide Strikers32c182.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.991116.3%7 W · 104 L-18.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe35c…221fbacked Sydney Thunder52c178.79$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.819546.3%44 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Sydney Thunder57c173.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.945749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8dd2…fcc4backed Sydney Thunder65c152.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.935437%20 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Adelaide Strikers55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.58860.2%53 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Adelaide Strikers15c150$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+250.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Adelaide Strikers26c138.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2810417.3%18 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Adelaide Strikers30c137.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.012634.6%9 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b0…69cabacked Sydney Thunder40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524835.4%17 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Sydney Thunder51c128.15$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.712867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Sydney Thunder44c115.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.96540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Sydney Thunder55c108.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed Adelaide Strikers17c107.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.443941%16 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…3cd2backed Adelaide Strikers43c103.48$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Sydney Thunder22c102.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.496331.7%20 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Sydney Thunder43c100.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2627054.4%147 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa662…4823backed Sydney Thunder50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010740.2%43 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…9bd0backed Adelaide Strikers43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2382…4628backed Sydney Thunder39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53050%15 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e7f…53e2backed Sydney Thunder75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0646…ad17backed Sydney Thunder49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4933415.6%52 W · 282 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+70.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Sydney Thunder34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344537.8%17 W · 28 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf062…7eb9backed Adelaide Strikers52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152931%9 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Sydney Thunder48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Sydney Thunder63c87.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x126c…b2b0backed Sydney Thunder38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…30a1backed Adelaide Strikers52c77.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.543852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef46…f872backed Adelaide Strikers52c77.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9315451.3%79 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Sydney Thunder13c76.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.143698.7%32 W · 337 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…1312backed Adelaide Strikers29c71.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.273240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sydney Thunder47c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2610644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6315…5a08backed Adelaide Strikers31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.522638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…2134backed Sydney Thunder58c61.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1912534.4%43 W · 82 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec95…156dbacked Adelaide Strikers26c61.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.052133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb4a…9d39backed Adelaide Strikers52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2914141.8%59 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb52e…c2d3backed Sydney Thunder43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85731.6%18 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Sydney Thunder53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde64…382ebacked Adelaide Strikers53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0c…c1f9backed Adelaide Strikers53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc4…2798backed Sydney Thunder45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb469…9e8fbacked Sydney Thunder53c55.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2414853.4%79 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…8a3abacked Adelaide Strikers49c50.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.924431.8%14 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Adelaide Strikers56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403c…cd78backed Sydney Thunder53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5778…86c0backed Adelaide Strikers40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4798…bac8backed Sydney Thunder45c47.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec70…e529backed Sydney Thunder45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205135.3%18 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Adelaide Strikers52c44.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Sydney Thunder51c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4410045%45 W · 55 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Sydney Thunder51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa273…3ac4backed Adelaide Strikers36c34.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe28…3c60backed Sydney Thunder54c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8220143.3%87 W · 114 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4883…98abbacked Sydney Thunder76c32.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.