Us Politics · resolved market
Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48abb199908c5804db7bafc4fffab707ffc0adf39d746671eb49154145bd0792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,993$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 19c | 1,196$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.28 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 12c | 1,002$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 7c | 950$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes | 72c | 783.2$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 697.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…1ddfbacked No | 19c | 523.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 521$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 15c | 499.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 15c | 395.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8a…70d7backed No | 39c | 380$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 30c | 325$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 13c | 318.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 19c | 295.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 275.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 77c | 273$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 75c | 271.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 14c | 237.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 12c | 217.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 15c | 215$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…9197backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 78c | 190.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed No | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…c7efbacked No | 18c | 166.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 14c | 161.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 18c | 144$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 22c | 114.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 13c | 113.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 79c | 110.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 13c | 110.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…ac4fbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +331.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 22c | 89.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…3c7ebacked Yes | 79c | 58.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…71a5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?this page
- Will between 310 and 319 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 320 and 329 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 330 and 339 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 340 and 349 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 350 and 359 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 380 and 389 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 390 and 399 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will between 400 and 409 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will fewer than 330 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?No won
- Will no house vote on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill occur by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.