Cricket · resolved market
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49bd43e32ee3c160c7abfee4fa6dbd6c0c2a4fa3ae3dd778a88f0df47481de3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brisbane Heatof Hobart Hurricanes, Brisbane Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e02…d70abacked Brisbane Heat | 9c | 13,305$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,047.05 | 364 | 45.6%166 W · 198 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Brisbane Heat | 59c | 11,476$6,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.87 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +209.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Hobart Hurricanes | 59c | 10,109$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Brisbane Heat | 35c | 2,656$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.91 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a8b6backed Brisbane Heat | 42c | 2,360$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69b…7b0cbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 64c | 2,026$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.67 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +20.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Brisbane Heat | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Hobart Hurricanes | 56c | 1,211$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Hobart Hurricanes | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 948.43$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.28 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 880.71$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Brisbane Heat | 43c | 759.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Brisbane Heat | 44c | 637.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Brisbane Heat | 45c | 570.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 555.56$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 762 | 51.6%393 W · 369 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 528.8$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 446.26$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Brisbane Heat | 42c | 446.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.65 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Brisbane Heat | 45c | 446.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Hobart Hurricanes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Brisbane Heat | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…dd5ebacked Hobart Hurricanes | 56c | 354.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Brisbane Heat | 43c | 311.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…81b4backed Brisbane Heat | 33c | 295.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Brisbane Heat | 17c | 260.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 369 | 8.7%32 W · 337 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Brisbane Heat | 39c | 219.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Brisbane Heat | 43c | 217$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…0762backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 207.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Hobart Hurricanes | 60c | 204$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Brisbane Heat | 26c | 203.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…ad17backed Brisbane Heat | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 323 | 15.8%51 W · 272 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Hobart Hurricanes | 54c | 199.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…268dbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 54c | 195.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e04…1320backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 194.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Brisbane Heat | 80c | 186$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Brisbane Heat | 43c | 180.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Brisbane Heat | 21c | 177.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.73 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 171.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Brisbane Heat | 40c | 146$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Brisbane Heat | 40c | 135.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed Hobart Hurricanes | 16c | 133.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Hobart Hurricanes | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…ca21backed Brisbane Heat | 44c | 116.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2a56backed Brisbane Heat | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b0…69cabacked Hobart Hurricanes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Brisbane Heat | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…7eb9backed Brisbane Heat | 51c | 97.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Hobart Hurricanes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Hobart Hurricanes | 16c | 89.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +68%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d20backed Hobart Hurricanes | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…ba1abacked Hobart Hurricanes | 60c | 72.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Brisbane Heat | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…2c98backed Hobart Hurricanes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…5af8backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…ec4abacked Brisbane Heat | 30c | 50.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…156dbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…1b48backed Hobart Hurricanes | 71c | 47.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d8…11babacked Brisbane Heat | 34c | 42.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Brisbane Heat | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 198 | 62.6%124 W · 74 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126c…b2b0backed Hobart Hurricanes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…1686backed Hobart Hurricanes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…993dbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Hobart Hurricanes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Brisbane Heat | 42c | 36.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 270 | 54.4%147 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…b234backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…9e8fbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…4cb9backed Brisbane Heat | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Brisbane Heat | 44c | 33.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…2b47backed Hobart Hurricanes | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Hobart Hurricanes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hobart Hurricanes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Hobart Hurricanes | 51c | 24.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…a086backed Hobart Hurricanes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…b6abbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.