Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf9eec6a2680733c2846cc1775f26e1081f7ae0c1ab218fbf5a270a383fd4fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 5c | 2,949$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,978$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.59 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 16c | 1,964$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…6244backed Yes | 20c | 1,364$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 58c | 1,277$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 1,274$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,212$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…a2f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 27c | 1,019$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.74 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…4c65backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 67c | 798.65$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…5374backed Yes | 50c | 693.43$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 18c | 608.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 36c | 590$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 56c | 540.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…4032backed Yes | 41c | 504.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 77c | 495.42$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 19c | 454.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 44c | 441.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 19c | 433.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 19c | 404.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 67c | 403.12$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 17c | 386$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 368.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 37c | 361.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked Yes | 59c | 358.93$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 42c | 318.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4824backed Yes | 19c | 269.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 19c | 261.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…75c3backed Yes | 19c | 261.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 248.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 59c | 247.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 29c | 240$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 21c | 235.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 48c | 220$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed No | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…885ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 14c | 192$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 63c | 190.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c17…9719backed Yes | 60c | 176.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 55c | 174.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 10c | 157.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked Yes | 47c | 147.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 17c | 145.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe74…bd18backed Yes | 34c | 142.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 69c | 136$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 51c | 126.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked Yes | 23c | 118.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 34c | 115.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Yes | 42c | 106.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…d4a7backed Yes | 65c | 100.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…68ebbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 26c | 86.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…518cbacked Yes | 47c | 85.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 26c | 77.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…a481backed Yes | 20c | 76.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a89bbacked Yes | 65c | 76.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…d4ebbacked Yes | 55c | 72.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 26c | 72.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked No | 74c | 72.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 64c | 69.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 54c | 65.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…533dbacked Yes | 36c | 65.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 40c | 62.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…fe73backed No | 61c | 57.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…bc20backed Yes | 19c | 52.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…5ebdbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bcf7backed No | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 63c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?this page
- Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 5 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.