Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9890307bebe6c3d704ea2cfc53a075fc6de96d33dad03b8f7e59d48f01fb96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd55…4c65backed Yes | 16c | 3,202$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 20c | 2,462$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 11c | 1,818$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.53 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes | 5c | 1,644$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,532$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 18c | 1,398$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…ae23backed Yes | 3c | 1,224$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,032$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 6c | 728.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 9c | 691.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…8536backed Yes | 14c | 690.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 16c | 622.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…3368backed Yes | 19c | 538.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…647fbacked Yes | 19c | 505.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +634.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 18c | 430.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…9975backed Yes | 4c | 403.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 15c | 380.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 18c | 343.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 16c | 324.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 19c | 320$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47c…d464backed Yes | 17c | 310.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 19c | 309.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…5374backed Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…8022backed Yes | 18c | 276.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +756%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 276.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 276.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 14c | 264.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a89bbacked Yes | 15c | 211.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea5…0002backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 9c | 125.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…8ee2backed Yes | 19c | 66.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 20c | 58.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb117…eaefbacked Yes | 21c | 55.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 5 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.