Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc01eeb149e914ea44ab211e5476bf59401a971a2cfcb8537e4d612f1abe532f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 22c | 11,361$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.27 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…b782backed Yes | 37c | 10,187$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked No | 77c | 8,894$6,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed No | 62c | 6,164$3,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 25c | 3,845$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 25c | 3,629$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…ce3bbacked No | 75c | 3,333$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 32c | 2,834$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…cef5backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 25c | 2,273$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,193$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 2,105$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 2,101$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked No | 64c | 1,999$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,978$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.41 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 70c | 1,899$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.93 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,794$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 26c | 1,785$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 27c | 1,767$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.22 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 75c | 1,763$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.48 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed No | 73c | 1,676$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 27c | 1,526$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.61 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 26c | 1,526$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.21 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 26c | 1,486$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 16c | 1,348$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 1,342$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 80c | 1,151$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 9c | 1,125$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,111$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…848ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,056$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked No | 72c | 1,053$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…3b94backed Yes | 4c | 1,042$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 64c | 1,000$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 3c | 987.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 3c | 859.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…6244backed No | 58c | 813.46$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c17…9719backed Yes | 39c | 756.16$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1b…397bbacked No | 75c | 740.54$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 15c | 688.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 683.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +734.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…cb38backed Yes | 10c | 670.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4824backed No | 76c | 658.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed No | 73c | 651.62$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 69c | 644.53$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 637.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 14c | 620.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 32c | 620.36$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 4c | 616.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 6c | 599.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…8139backed Yes | 33c | 597.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 19c | 567.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 555.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 24c | 549.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 510.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed No | 67c | 507.67$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 24c | 468.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 44c | 453.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 26c | 420$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 390.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 73c | 388.17$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 69c | 361.09$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 10c | 356.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 44c | 330.38$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 36c | 320.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…5374backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 73c | 299.98$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 74c | 285.93$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed No | 74c | 271.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 16c | 266$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…4a90backed Yes | 37c | 252.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…479fbacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 66c | 242.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…cda9backed Yes | 44c | 234.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…fab0backed Yes | 47c | 214.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked No | 72c | 208$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…68ebbacked No | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…885ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…6f32backed No | 73c | 164.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 33c | 163.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked No | 77c | 144.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9d2fbacked No | 61c | 131.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…e78dbacked Yes | 42c | 129.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 22c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…df9ebacked Yes | 21c | 105.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…c408backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…134cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?this page
- Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 5 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.