Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295220cf943286a6d0af58f888f0cb3b1f4097b3c1fbdd1bd89b896c23dc863b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe470…b6e2backed Yes | 4c | 12,383$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 26c | 3,357$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 3,133$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 14c | 2,007$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 16c | 1,772$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,612$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 26c | 900$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +634.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…808cbacked Yes | 27c | 372$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe420…04a6backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 27c | 361.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 288.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 9c | 271.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…6c50backed Yes | 24c | 231.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…5809backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 77c | 175.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ed79backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…adfdbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0526…df50backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 5 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.