Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865e56725e3740e187300967f60e30d26fa570acebd455392adbe3507271d11e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 18c | 2,296$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.43 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…4c65backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,978$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.87 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked No | 76c | 1,793$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 44c | 1,346$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 18c | 1,038$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,034$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…9975backed Yes | 15c | 1,015$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 23c | 922.8$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.65 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…8022backed Yes | 6c | 856.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +756%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 7c | 743.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 736.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.6 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 20c | 631$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 5c | 622$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 14c | 622$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 28c | 554.37$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.29 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 28c | 528.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.81 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 17c | 528.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…243bbacked Yes | 19c | 500$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 41c | 488.48$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 20c | 475.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…5f30backed Yes | 18c | 429.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 18c | 365$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 25c | 362.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…090ebacked Yes | 33c | 354.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…5374backed Yes | 23c | 350$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 61c | 333$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 70c | 324.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 321.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.71 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 316.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.66 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 24c | 309.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 40c | 300.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 25c | 278.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed No | 65c | 263.52$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ea…e8b2backed No | 35c | 263.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 8c | 257.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 21c | 243.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 17c | 230.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 19c | 219.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.17 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 6c | 213$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 23c | 202.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…885ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 51c | 194.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 192.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +734.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 178$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Yes | 26c | 174.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…df9ebacked Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 19c | 154.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a89bbacked Yes | 32c | 141.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 18c | 117.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f1…51edbacked Yes | 21c | 114.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 28c | 107.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 58c | 103.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…5ebdbacked Yes | 27c | 101.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…134cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 26c | 98.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…fd5cbacked Yes | 18c | 88.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 76c | 79.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Yes | 36c | 69.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…533dbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 24c | 51.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 31c | 46.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked Yes | 31c | 41.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…e49bbacked Yes | 60c | 39.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X?this page
- Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X?No won
- Trump posts between 5 and 9 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 5 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.