Cricket · resolved market
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb276b593cfb0e443b5d745d56794911890ca59c42cce23f3c079feceade856d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne Starsof Melbourne Stars, Sydney Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb207…c751backed Sydney Thunder | 47c | 7,238$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.86 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Melbourne Stars | 55c | 4,000$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.78 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sydney Thunder | 32c | 2,784$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.39 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Melbourne Stars | 53c | 1,966$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.59 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Sydney Thunder | 2c | 1,689$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 1,599$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.91 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4690…94fbbacked Melbourne Stars | 79c | 1,299$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 1,290$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69b…7b0cbacked Melbourne Stars | 55c | 1,175$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.52 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +20.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Melbourne Stars | 49c | 1,080$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.2 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Sydney Thunder | 38c | 1,019$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.36 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…500cbacked Melbourne Stars | 76c | 1,017$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.74 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Sydney Thunder | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Sydney Thunder | 45c | 884.43$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.22 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked Melbourne Stars | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…c403backed Sydney Thunder | 8c | 630.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sydney Thunder | 36c | 594.18$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Melbourne Stars | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Melbourne Stars | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sydney Thunder | 31c | 471.35$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Sydney Thunder | 42c | 451$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Melbourne Stars | 62c | 420.89$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…e821backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 333.29$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed Sydney Thunder | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 11.2%12 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Melbourne Stars | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 130 | 40.8%53 W · 77 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…ad17backed Sydney Thunder | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…4fa8backed Sydney Thunder | 7c | 281.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c3…5cc1backed Sydney Thunder | 33c | 280$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…cf2ebacked Sydney Thunder | 29c | 251$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…4823backed Sydney Thunder | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Sydney Thunder | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf7…e497backed Sydney Thunder | 10c | 211.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Sydney Thunder | 15c | 185.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 111 | 6.3%7 W · 104 L | -18.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…7d7dbacked Sydney Thunder | 43c | 183.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 328 | 46.3%152 W · 176 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Sydney Thunder | 41c | 178.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sydney Thunder | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…2fd9backed Sydney Thunder | 44c | 116.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…3c60backed Sydney Thunder | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 198 | 43.4%86 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Melbourne Stars | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Sydney Thunder | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…199dbacked Melbourne Stars | 52c | 93.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…3dc5backed Melbourne Stars | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Melbourne Stars | 60c | 72.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sydney Thunder | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 369 | 8.7%32 W · 337 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Sydney Thunder | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…9422backed Melbourne Stars | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…9e8fbacked Melbourne Stars | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ba41backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 47.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…519abacked Sydney Thunder | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…3487backed Melbourne Stars | 71c | 46.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…7eb9backed Sydney Thunder | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…6c62backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 39.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…cd78backed Melbourne Stars | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…0747backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Melbourne Stars | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…dec6backed Sydney Thunder | 46c | 32.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…5262backed Sydney Thunder | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…c4a7backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…c7acbacked Melbourne Stars | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.