TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sharksof Sharks, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$452,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$452,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa21…1438backed Sharks38c251,795$94,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,869.927149.3%35 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Maple Leafs62c170,000$105,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,40013251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Sharks36c60,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,40042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Maple Leafs64c31,320$20,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,044.557850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs63c30,928$19,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,484.8188151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs63c25,176$15,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,946.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Sharks23c16,383$3,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,540.551,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Maple Leafs64c12,912$8,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,263.8119555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Sharks24c8,769$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,684.8157157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs63c8,117$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,092.842,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs64c7,821$4,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.7554047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Maple Leafs77c7,207$5,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,581.161450%7 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs63c6,194$3,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,902.0693953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Sharks33c5,830$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,906.281,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Sharks34c3,778$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.0551045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Maple Leafs64c3,752$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.0113363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Maple Leafs63c3,727$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.721741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs36c3,426$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2352,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Maple Leafs64c3,284$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.9451452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Maple Leafs64c3,237$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Maple Leafs76c3,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28014451.4%74 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Maple Leafs67c2,970$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.5514848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maple Leafs62c2,901$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.8847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Maple Leafs63c2,846$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.9210938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Maple Leafs66c2,822$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.475349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs63c2,539$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.5752050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Maple Leafs4c2,500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Sharks34c2,461$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.111,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Maple Leafs65c2,443$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.949052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Maple Leafs67c2,179$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4603158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Sharks34c2,176$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.4427548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs64c2,106$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.8769550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Sharks34c2,044$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.058952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90dc…5ba6backed Sharks36c1,889$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sharks36c1,833$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.071,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs63c1,804$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.451,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Sharks35c1,718$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.5925449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e87…2171backed Sharks40c1,653$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.2715360.8%93 W · 60 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks36c1,599$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.3679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs76c1,587$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.1275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Maple Leafs65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sharks36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs1c1,499$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.547450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs77c1,481$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.021,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs78c1,372$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.431,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs64c1,311$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.61,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Maple Leafs64c1,269$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8122548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs64c1,126$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.71,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ce…d50abacked Maple Leafs65c1,100$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8643…0f54backed Maple Leafs63c1,083$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.2910845.4%49 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sharks62c1,033$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.343,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Maple Leafs64c1,017$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.135349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Sharks37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63018547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Maple Leafs64c1,000$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6356648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1112…b9c0backed Maple Leafs65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Maple Leafs32c979.65$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2413435.8%48 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x746a…d3d2backed Maple Leafs65c969.23$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs64c962.99$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.3175155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs63c938.58$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.311,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Maple Leafs64c769$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.253836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Sharks33c763.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.7711547%54 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Sharks76c736.46$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Maple Leafs65c707.69$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46031753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sharks22c700$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Sharks37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44122946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Maple Leafs63c675$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.252955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Sharks35c600$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39043944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Maple Leafs64c586.85$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dad…72cfbacked Maple Leafs65c570.55$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.862050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6604…44d7backed Sharks36c569.44$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.441346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Maple Leafs21c550$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.948543.5%37 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Maple Leafs65c538.46$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013060%78 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Sharks27c531.59$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.295049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Sharks10c523.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.1420150.2%101 W · 100 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Maple Leafs65c519.62$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Maple Leafs64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32012648.4%61 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…66a1backed Maple Leafs64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Maple Leafs65c499.98$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.981850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Maple Leafs65c476.95$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0232650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Sharks42c476.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.419347.3%44 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b098backed Maple Leafs66c472.73$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Maple Leafs64c468.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7747051.5%242 W · 228 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Maple Leafs22c454$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8829412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Maple Leafs67c449$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.832138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Maple Leafs63c438.12$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.027035.7%25 W · 45 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sharks36c409$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.491,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ac…5fd6backed Sharks36c402$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.2847848.1%230 W · 248 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Sharks36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2561,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Maple Leafs56c357.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004731.9%15 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Sharks36c353.85$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7727544%121 W · 154 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sharks35c347.22$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.381,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Maple Leafs67c344.78$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23120147.3%95 W · 106 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs64c300.38$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.431,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…2481backed Sharks37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18913554.1%73 W · 62 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Maple Leafs65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19511254.5%61 W · 51 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e1…d5bcbacked Maple Leafs65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1957450%37 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Sharks36c291.67$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6781157.2%464 W · 347 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sharks35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7160337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Sharks36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7820643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.