NHL · resolved market

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb811c5d0205d7d5489875dd6f1b73aa6bb9e48ed16e1326066ad6f029c3efaa2

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	55c	68,152$37,471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,680.91	1,345	54.8%737 W · 608 L	+21.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	45c	47,112$21,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,200.39	283	53%150 W · 133 L	+16.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	45c	10,657$4,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,803.85	301	52.5%158 W · 143 L	+17.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Under	56c	9,548$5,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,191	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Under	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,400	275	48.7%134 W · 141 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	44c	4,507$2,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,003.4	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	44c	4,278$1,882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,882.41	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	45c	3,333$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.85	225	46.2%104 W · 121 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under	56c	1,429$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.57	472	56.8%268 W · 204 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Over	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	149	45%67 W · 82 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	43c	947.07$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.24	1,230	53.7%661 W · 569 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over	45c	925$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.25	148	48%71 W · 77 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	45c	890$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.5	764	50.4%385 W · 379 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	46c	830.57$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.06	514	52.3%269 W · 245 L	+17.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	45c	784$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.27	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	44c	509.22$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.74	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	45c	500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	45c	444.44$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	530	50.6%268 W · 262 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…92ecbacked Over	45c	405.22$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.35	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	44c	340$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.6	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	44c	250.4$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.17	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	366	52.7%193 W · 173 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over	45c	198.71$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.42	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	44c	136$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.84	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	46c	130.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1,093	51.8%566 W · 527 L	+14.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	44c	108$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	232	49.1%114 W · 118 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	58c	86.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Under	58c	85.82$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.82	93	47.3%44 W · 49 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Under	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	90	55.6%50 W · 40 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under	56c	66.46$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.24	490	53.7%263 W · 227 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Over	43c	66$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Over	44c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	160	48.1%77 W · 83 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Under	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	214	54.2%116 W · 98 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d4f…3d87backed Over	45c	53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	96	56.3%54 W · 42 L	+9.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	45c	51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	793	50.1%397 W · 396 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7a…d321backed Under	55c	50.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	255	50.2%128 W · 127 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	285	49.1%140 W · 145 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	44c	47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	583	46.5%271 W · 312 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bd…4f40backed Under	56c	45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0efe…df51backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Under	52c	43.44$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.9	1,377	49.1%676 W · 701 L	+39.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Under	53c	42.55$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x321c…18ddbacked Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	58cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Over	44c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	44c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Over	44c	39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Under	38c	36.29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Over	44c	33.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Over	46c	30.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	109	55%60 W · 49 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	216	48.1%104 W · 112 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	45c	24.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	244	42.6%104 W · 140 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	44c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under	56c	20.63$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.08	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Under	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	76	40.8%31 W · 45 L	-9.3wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
Sharks vs. Maple LeafsSharks won
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Sharks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event