UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8eaeddf0643914de6ea2acc7c9b372cad2bb848a7701eaf68342938fe0cb7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Horiguchiof Horiguchi, Albazi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $750,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $833,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Albazi | 24c | 145,792$35,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,589.03 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Horiguchi | 75c | 101,720$76,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,429.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Albazi | 25c | 80,000$19,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,980.96 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Albazi | 25c | 68,000$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Horiguchi | 76c | 66,000$50,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,840 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Horiguchi | 74c | 63,593$47,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,456.85 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Albazi | 24c | 57,745$13,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,858.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Horiguchi | 75c | 50,000$37,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…c096backed Albazi | 25c | 45,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Horiguchi | 75c | 35,773$26,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,951.49 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Horiguchi | 76c | 33,247$25,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,979.28 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Albazi | 25c | 30,885$7,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,721.35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Albazi | 34c | 22,732$7,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.72 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Horiguchi | 76c | 16,350$12,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Horiguchi | 76c | 15,150$11,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…1147backed Horiguchi | 77c | 14,497$11,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,338.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Albazi | 25c | 14,030$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.62 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Horiguchi | 75c | 14,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Albazi | 25c | 12,342$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.93 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Horiguchi | 69c | 10,301$7,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.6 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Albazi | 24c | 9,295$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.69 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd2…29a2backed Albazi | 25c | 8,527$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…60febacked Horiguchi | 76c | 7,659$5,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Horiguchi | 75c | 6,673$5,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.06 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Albazi | 24c | 6,225$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.03 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Albazi | 24c | 6,200$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 6,000$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Horiguchi | 63c | 6,000$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.53 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Albazi | 28c | 5,297$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.81 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 5,132$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.58 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Horiguchi | 76c | 5,091$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Horiguchi | 75c | 5,012$3,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.29 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Horiguchi | 71c | 4,678$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.36 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 4,500$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Albazi | 24c | 4,443$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Albazi | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Horiguchi | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Albazi | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Horiguchi | 76c | 3,947$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.37 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Horiguchi | 74c | 3,812$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Albazi | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Horiguchi | 69c | 3,537$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.64 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Albazi | 25c | 3,050$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Albazi | 24c | 3,033$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.94 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Horiguchi | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Horiguchi | 76c | 2,730$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Horiguchi | 76c | 2,634$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.38 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…dbeabacked Albazi | 25c | 2,480$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Albazi | 7c | 2,432$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Albazi | 33c | 2,244$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.8 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Horiguchi | 75c | 2,050$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Albazi | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Albazi | 25c | 1,962$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Albazi | 33c | 1,848$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…e47cbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 1,809$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Horiguchi | 64c | 1,690$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.27 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Horiguchi | 65c | 1,686$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.37 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Albazi | 28c | 1,613$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Horiguchi | 66c | 1,537$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.32 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Albazi | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Albazi | 39c | 1,450$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.68 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb5…49ecbacked Horiguchi | 74c | 1,370$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…7fcfbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f93bbacked Horiguchi | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…f180backed Horiguchi | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Horiguchi | 76c | 1,289$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.47 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Albazi | 24c | 1,251$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Horiguchi | 76c | 1,250$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Horiguchi | 74c | 1,203$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.78 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Albazi | 25c | 1,115$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Albazi | 24c | 1,109$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Horiguchi | 68c | 1,024$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Albazi | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d2c1backed Horiguchi | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Horiguchi | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…cc0cbacked Horiguchi | 77c | 999.96$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked Horiguchi | 74c | 999.96$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Albazi | 26c | 999.65$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.91 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…88acbacked Albazi | 23c | 995.65$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Albazi | 23c | 910.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Horiguchi | 76c | 855.26$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Albazi | 26c | 855.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Horiguchi | 66c | 853.88$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…af7cbacked Horiguchi | 72c | 834.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Albazi | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Albazi | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Albazi | 25c | 799.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Albazi | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Albazi | 25c | 720$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Albazi | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Albazi | 21c | 678$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…391cbacked Horiguchi | 74c | 657.93$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Horiguchi | 76c | 629.63$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaded…6fa0backed Albazi | 31c | 619.83$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Albazi | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Albazi | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Albazi | 32c | 600$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Horiguchi | 66c | 569.2$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Albazi | 30c | 553.17$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…c019backed Albazi | 16c | 509.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.