UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5bd7b6ce8426e616fe0644d1b7dbdd039625e0090ea6a1dd87b7a186c41d2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed No | 32c | 1,566$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.13 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 32c | 1,418$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 31c | 677.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 59c | 552.65$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.89 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…ef52backed Yes | 71c | 528.33$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 41c | 489.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 40c | 283.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked No | 41c | 271.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed No | 35c | 142.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed No | 40c | 100.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed Yes | 67c | 89.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 56c | 88.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…54c2backed No | 44c | 79.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…aa51backed Yes | 69c | 72.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 63c | 72.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Yes | 74c | 59.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 54.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 61c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card)Horiguchi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.